Evaluation of the Brazilian RenovaBio conversion-free criteria on land use change emissions
Dealing with Land Use Change (LUC) emissions is the most challenging aspect of any bioenergy program, and this has a central role in defining policy. Induced Land Use Change (ILUC) emissions cannot be measured, and there is no consensus on the best way to estimate a quantitative ILUC value. Programs that apply ILUC values as point estimates for specific pathways have been criticized due to the impreciseness of models, lack of convergence of results, and significant dependency on models and premises. The alternative to point estimates is to develop ILUC risk-based strategies, which are also challenged to demonstrate their effectiveness regarding induced emissions.
This study – performed within the framework of IEA Bioenergy Task 45 (sustainability and climate impacts) – focuses on the approach taken in the Brazilian Biofuels policy ‘RenovaBio’ and evaluates the effectiveness of its risk-based approach, through the eligibility criteria in reducing ILUC emissions in the Brazilian context. RenovaBio is based on certification and life cycle assessment, but ILUC emissions are not directly accounted for in the emission calculations. Instead, they are managed through three main criteria, including prohibiting biofuels from areas of native vegetation converted after November 2018 (further called ‘conversion-free criteria’). In the analysis, the BLUM (Brazilian Land Use Model) was merged with BRLUC 2.0 carbon stocks to evaluate how ILUC emissions change in two different scenarios and thus evaluate the effectiveness of the conversion-free criteria by 2030. With direct native vegetation conversion not being allowed through the RenovaBio requirements, the stimulus of land expansion is reduced. Simulations show significantly lower emissions (218-428 Gt CO2e up to 2030) in the scenario with the conversion-free criteria compared to the alternative without criteria. The most significant contributions to reducing the expansion of agricultural and livestock areas on native vegetation occur in Cerrado regions. At the same time, the most substantial reductions in CO2e emissions are observed in the North Amazon region. The other regions have smaller changes in area, although the South and Southeast regions are responsible for a considerable share of sugarcane and soybean production.
Although we know the intrinsic uncertainty associated with land use modeling , its magnitude is sufficient to conclude that it is crucial to maintain these conversion-free eligibility criteria in the RenovaBio Program. This observation is specific to the Brazilian context but highlights the need to keep policy efforts and traceability to avoid direct or indirect deforestation.
